On request of the US CIS the organization “Free Russia Foundation” forecasted possible changes in Russia by 2030. The project included researchers from the Russian Federation and produced a report titled Russia Scenarios 2030. The researchers covered 12 sectors in their respective profile: energy dependency, elite concentration and coupe, military conflict, China factors, separatism, local military conflict, West imposed sanction impact, Russia after Putin... This study of highly potential development scenarios has attracted attentions of not only NATO and the USA in conflict with President Putin, but also neighbouring former USSR member countries and Soviet-block states.

Instability in nuclear-weapons Russia will bring upon calamity to itself and to the world. Assessment of the existing conditions: arms accumulation, its security concerning risks of it being in hands of different groups, ethnic and faith-based collisions, separatism, terrorism, Putin’s personal characteristics, possible death, common criminal behaviour and repression for anything, mass exodus leads to a single conclusion: Russia’s next break-up. 

Deceased Boris Nemtsov, Putin’s opponent, had met retired Margaret Tatcher several times. Tatcher would talk again and again about British Empire. When Nemtsov asked her why she touch the topic every time Tatcher’s response was “Both Russia and Britain were great empires with vast land. Now we are not and have forgotten about it, therefore, are having happy life. You can’t abandon Empire thinking, giving hard time for yourselves and to others. I am talking about it you to understand”.

In fact, the Russian people still command this kind of mindset, and its government puts efforts to remind and reinforce it. At Munich meeting Putin described the break-up of Soviet Union as being “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century” which inspired Russian citizens but intimated others.

Ludwig von Mises defines in his work “Economic causes of wars“ written in 1944 “… Humanity fought throughout thousands of years without any rationale. Since the 18th Century started to have economic justification for the war. Accelerated development resulted in resource deprivation hence the rationale behind the war has taken the form of economic gain.” He highlighted that resource rich Russia’s motive for war is linked to its historically preserved noncivilized culture of territorial expansion rather economical. During Peter III’ reign although Russia “agreed on entering Austria Prussia War as an Empire” was not able to take a side.

Throughout history, Russia has been hard on its own thinkers who would propagate different ideas. Although there are many Russian geniuses, they have never formed strong and consistent opposition groups, remaining just great individuals. Non-existence of strong political opposition bars practice of congruence, reconciliation, and tolerance in public domains. It means a ruling class shall subdue everyone and everything.

The collapse of the Russian Empire in 1918 and the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 are both the consequences of not being amenable to changing ideology and socio-political reforms. Hence, there is no one to blame but themselves, Russians. Nevertheless, Russia keeps blaming others for the break-ups. Although no one subsequently predicted the fall of the USSR, after the collapse it is generally accepted that the end was a natural process. Except for the Russians themselves. Meanwhile, Russian school history textbooks say that the fate of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the German Reich, the British Empire, which ended in the 20th century, was natural.

Shortly after the founding of Russia, Ivan the Terrible's "oprochina" was a state machine that was savagely fighting its domestic enemies, becoming more and more sophisticated and perfecting itself during the Soviet era.

Groups and individuals not in accord with the state would jeered and taunted, assigning different nicknames such as counter-revolutionaries, public enemies, landlords, bourgeois, foreign spies, anti-Soviets. The state machine haunting them was specialized by the subject’s profile: ChK, OGPU, NKVD, KGB, GRU, GULAG etc. Nowadays, terrorists, foreign agents, traitors are the new subjects. Russophobia is the term to further highlight the severity of fabricated crimes. It applies to foreigners abroad and ethnic non-Russians internally.

The Soviet Empire fall in 1991 was the surprise present for its 15 member states. For Baltic three states it was the liberation from colonization since the end of WW2, hence the event for celebration. Intellectuals in Georgia voiced out that they were waiting for this moment over 200 years. Ukraine then president initiated the dissolution of USSR and pressed two other state leaders to sign the Belovezh Accords. Administrative territorial division under Soviets did not take into consideration inherent traditions, territorial disputes and national identities mixing different nationalities, thus as soon as states declared independence, conflicts and clashes become prevalent, even leading to civil wars. Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict started well before the end of the Soviet Empire and many more confrontation followed later. Many ethnic groups thus regions left out of proclaiming independent status experiencing deep discontent. Hence, Chechnya war erupted, resulting in genocide. 

Kremlin defined Russophobia has been present over hundreds of years across nations that had felt Russia’s aggression. Russophobia implies strong dislike towards Russians. There are similar terms such as Sinophobia, Nipponphobia, Afrophobia, Judenophobia, Anglophobia, Xenophobia used to describe discrimination against certain nationalities or a group of people. However, there has never been exaggeration at a such scale. Hidden Russophobia accelerated as soon as the empire broke down. Reinforced mixing and Russification of its citizen produced negative consequences. During the Tajik civil war nearly all ethnic Russians fled the country. In Baltic states the Russians, a substantial demographic group, on every occasion complain to Moscow for being increasingly discriminated there. Speaking Russian in public places frowned upon and disparaged in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Russian language and Russian people disappeared in Azerbaijan. Ukrainians start to abstain speaking Russian abroad.

Researchers who worked on Russia Scenarios 2030 project predicted for Russia the next collapse if today’s state structure maintains further. The Russian Federation consists of 85 subjects, in 72 of which ethnic Russians are dominant population. At the start of the 20th century it is believed that the Russian Empire had almost 200 nationalities. Hundred years later the number declined about a half, the outcome of persistent Russification. Soviet Kazakhstan counted a third of its population being ethnic Kazaks. Proactive migration policy since 1990s gave rise to the number of people returning to historical homeland, making up more than a half of the population. However, Kazak language is the mother tongue for only 2-3 millions its citizens out of total 18 million population. 

Stalin annexed Bessarabia after WW2 and Brezhnev while being the party leader in Moldovia held the strict policy on resettlement with influx of Russians and Ukrainians replacing Moldovians expelled from homeland. As the consequence, when Moldova proclaimed independence the Russian emigrants self-declared Transnistria, unrecognized breakaway republic. Moscow supports the separatist state with military presence. Reforming multiple times Buriyat Mongolia’s administrative structure units has resulted in its vast territory consolidated into Russia’s federal territories, leaving three separate Buriyat subjects to function. The last primary school thought in Buriyat language closed in 1957. As the world entered into a new century two regions abolished “on the peoples’ will” and consolidated into neighboring federal districts, In remaining one region only 24% residents are ethnic Buriyats. 

Although over hundreds of years these lands of these ethnic groups and nationalities have been occupied by the Russia Empire, well-orchestrated slandering propaganda claims it is the voluntary action to be a part of Russia. To support the advocacy many monuments erected, grand anniversaries celebrated, multiple scientific works produced and there are more movies and literary arts made available. For any nation it is an insult to dignity and self-identity. The Russians make fun of minority ethnos telling humiliating jokes about fellow citizens. Open defamation targeting Armenians, Jewish, Georgians, Ukrainians, Uzbeks, Native Siberians, Caucasians, Arctic people for their national identity and distinct culture and media channels and information sources play an active role in it. There is a Russian saying “vodka becomes stronger, a bread tastes better” when this kind of talk present. 

The researchers argue that there would be inevitable instability throughout Russia when Putin dies or retires from politics. Along with internal social volatility the nations left out from the previous break up will seek revival. The first movements are expected in North Caucasia region. Like in the Tower of Babel, the multitude of ethnos live in this small space.In Dagestan only there are 6-7 ethnic groups with distinct language and culture. These are the people deported to Siberia and Central Asia in packed wagons during WW2 cold winter. Chechens, Balkars, Ingush, Ichker, Karach, Tatars, Kalmyks didn’t reach the destination dying on the way in mass. Children, seniors, women…The revenge that remains forever in the memory of nation. 

Ethnic clashes and faith based riotss in North Caucasia tend to have anti-Russian sentiment. At the end of the long-lasting Caucasian war (1817-1864) involving all native people there Russia conquered Islamic Caucasia. It left a bold “Anti-Russian” mark in their memory. Throughout history, the Russian state itself internally constructed the Russophobia. Later Russia made two wars (Chechnya Wars) which were basically genocide. During that time, posters with slogans “Russians do not go! We need slaves and hookers” were popular on the streets and Russian war prisoners were told “Because you are Russian”. Russians fled North Caucasia. In any federal region Russians make less than one percent of population. The highest number recorded in Karachaev Cherkessia stands at 32 percent. .

In 2014 Tuva had a grand plan to celebrate 70th Anniversary of joining Russia. However, the rumor killing “70 Russians for 70 Years” spread like fire hence the event idea was abandoned. The first year after Soviet Empire collapse, 20 thousands Russians left Tuva. Today 80 percent of its population is ethnic Tuvans. “Хостуг Тыва” (Free Tuva) pronationalist organization openly calls for independence. National movements are for separation and hostile towards emigrant Russians.

Natural resources account for 80 percent of Russia's current exports.Tatarstan and Bashkiria, two Russian republics that feed Russia by supplying a large share of exported natural products, where Russians does not make a half of demographic composition:40 percent for Tatarstan and 35 percent for Bashkiria. Historically the Russophobic communities. When Ivan the Terrible crushed the Sibirian Tatars, Crimean Tatars burnt down Moscow in revenge. Putin the Terrible annexed Crimea Tatarstan the first congratulated him Tatarstsn! Probably, Kremlin pressurized them giving historical importance to the event.

Kalmyks counts 70 percent of the residents at home. The mayor of its capital Elista has not been recognized. Putin appointed Dmitryi Trapeznikov, a former acting head of self-declared Donbass Republic on the run after a fight for authority in Donbass where one of the pretendents for leadership was killed with explosives. This bandit’s appointment stirred uproar among genuinely peaceful Kalmyks resulting in one day rally on the Main squaire. Moscow didn’t pay the slightest attention to it.

Yakutia is the federal region receiving the biggest subsidy from Moscow. Less than a million people live in the vast territory of 3mln., where the Russians making 49 percent of its residents. Despite the fact that Yakutia is rich in resources, it has limited technological opportunities for exploration other than diamond deposits. Under Nikolaev’s presidency, the republic changed its name and demonstrated separation initiatives based on its diamonds, the national wealth. 

If Russia falls regions distant from the center and economically dependent on powerful neigbours such as Far East and East Prussia, where the Russians are majority residents would not be sit still. There is high chance that they would follow South Africa, New Zealand, Australia history after the British Empire.

If Russia fails it would be a global crisis. However bad were Saddam Hussein’, Muamar Kaddafi, or Hosni Mubarak’ dictatorship, it kept control within the country. After its fall chaos and disorder have emerged shaking the world. If Putin’s regime falls the magnitude is in many folds. Russia may repeat the Time of Troubles after Boris Godunov’s death or the Civil War of 1920s. If this is the case Russia bordering with the greatest number of countries, it would be “Ten Days that Shook the World”. John Reed died just after ten days of the start. In reality, the shaking of the world had continued few more years. 

February 19, 2022